Atene – Nuova doccia fredda per Atene. Standard & Poor’s ha annunciato di aver tagliato il rating sovrano a lungo termine della Grecia di tre scalini, portandolo da B a CCC, otto scalini al di sotto della prima soglia per i titoli “spazzatura” (BB+). Il rating sovrano a breve è stato confermato a “C e tutti i rating sono stati tolti dal “creditwatch”.
Come precisa una nota, l’outlook sul rating a lungo termine resta negativo, a indicare che un altro taglio è probabile nel giro dei prossimi 12-18 mesi. Nella nota, S&P parla della probabilità, sempre più verosimile, di una ristrutturazione del debito sovrano con modalità tali da essere considerata un default per le agenzie di rating. Secondo alcune agenzie l’agenzia ha affermato che “ora c’e’ una probabilita’ significativamente maggiore” di uno o piu’ default.
L’uscita dall’euro ”non e’ un’ipotesi di lavoro” per nessun governo fra i diciassette di Eurolandia. Lo ha detto il presidente della Banca centrale europea, Jean-Claude Trichet, secondo la Bloomberg.
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Per i nostri lettori esperti, pubblichiamo il testo inglese divulgato da Standard & Poor’s sull’abbassamento del rating della Grecia a CCC, dal quale si evince in modo palese che non ha senso continuare a mantenere Atene nell’euro:
“The downgrade reflects our view that there is a significantly higher likelihood of one or more defaults, as defined by our criteria relating to full and timely payment, linked to efforts by official creditors to close an emerging financing gap in Greece. This financing gap has emerged in part because Greece’s access to market financing in 2012 and possibly beyond, as envisaged in the current official EU/IMF program, is unlikely to materialize. This lack of access, in our view, creates a gap between committed official financing and Greece’s projected financing requirements. Greece has heavy near-term financing requirements, with approximately €95 billion of Greek government debt maturing between now and the end of 2013 along with an additional €58 billion maturing in 2014… and this “based on recent statements made by the German government ahead of the June 20, 2011 Eurogroup meeting, we believe some official creditors will see restructuring of commercial debt as a necessary condition to such additional funding. We believe that private sector burden sharing could take the form of a debt exchange offer or an extension of debt maturities. In our view, any such transactions would likely be on terms less favorable than the debt being refinanced, which we, in turn, would view as a de facto default according to Standard & Poor’s published criteria. In that event, under our criteria, this would result in the rating on the affected instruments being lowered to ‘D,’ while Greece’s credit rating would be lowered to ‘SD'(selective default).” Moreover, the downgrade reflects our view that implementation risks associated with the EU/IMF program are rising, given the increasingly complicated political environment in Greece coupled with its current difficult economic climate.
